Daily Futures Commentary June 5, 2009

Friday, June 5, 2009

Alert: Unemployment Rate jumped to 9.4%

The job loss was -345,000. This was better than expected.

Today’s U.S. Unemployment Report will set the tone of the market today. Today’s Non-Farm Payrolls Report is expected to show the Unemployment Rate rose to 9.2%. The estimated job loss is 535,000. If the government added jobs then this number may dip under 500,000.

Anything under 500,000 would be bearish for the Dollar. A number over 550,000 will be bullish for the Dollar.

The major concerns among traders this morning are regarding the amount of jobs the government created and the historical move in the Unemployment Rate over 9%. Traders are also worried about the number of revisions to previous reports which have taken place. Because of the active revising by the government, there may be a two-side trade this morning. The first reaction will be to the actual number, and the second to the revision.

A number less the 500,000 is likely to turn traders bearish on the Treasury instrument as this news would indicate a possible bottom in the economy. A number greater than 550,000 will be …
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