Daily Futures Commentary July 1, 2009

Wednesday, July 1, 2009

September Japanese Yen traders are looking for a lower opening this morning based on overnight selling pressure. This comes on the heels of a friendly Bank of Japan quarterly Tankan survey of business sentiment.

Although the key index which measures business sentiment improved on a quarter-to-quarter basis, it was still below the consensus. The negative reaction to the report demonstrates that investors wanted to see more robust improvement.

Earlier in the year when the markets were failing and investors were struggling to find good news anywhere, traders would have been content with any improvement. Now that it appears the global economy is starting to show signs of recovery, investors want to see numbers that at a minimum reflect their expectations. In this case, the Tankan survey failed to meet expectations and traders were encouraged to sell.

The recent gains in the equity markets have also been putting pressure on the Japanese Yen as Japanese investors have been encouraged to shun lower domestic returns in search of higher yields overseas. The September Japanese Yen has been on a consistent break since the U.S. stock markets bottomed early last …
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