Comments on: Three Reasons Why This Maket is Doomed…

By: TOM

TOM — Sat, 10 Oct 2009 17:09:28 +0000

I agree that there are signs of a lessening of values; however, I remain optimistic.

By: bobby b

bobby b — Thu, 08 Oct 2009 22:50:52 +0000

Dust off a chart and take a look at the market in 1929-1930. A 48% decline (yes Virginia, this crash was worse-53%) was followed by a 48% rally into 1930. Thats when Hoover famously said “This recession is over. The business of America is business”. Yes, and whats good for General Motors as well.
This 53% decline has now been followed by a 56% rally, and everyone is talking about the “V”. Could somebody please point me to one statistic that shows a meaniful bottoming in this economy? Notice I didn’t say”recovery”. Employment is on a glide path downward, and there is no plan to slow it. Without jobs the foreclosures continue and the commercial real estate “extend and pretend” game will end for the banks.
This rally has been bought and paid for by the Fed. It is a last stab at stabalizing the system, but it will not revive the economy. As Greg W said, we are a long way from paying the tab for our excesses. Without a meaningful way to emloy millions in new jobs with a new future, this is just end game stuff. Enjoy the ride.

By: Dave I.

Dave I. — Thu, 08 Oct 2009 13:01:11 +0000

#1The Economy is in Terrible shape across all sectors anyone saying any different does not live in reality.
#2. More bad news will come via the commercial sector before year end
in the form of commercial note defaults, commercial realestate holdings
retail sales , manufacturing sales, = increased unemployment , more
commercial banking problems,and of course lower tax revenues for
federal, state & local government.
#3. Energy prices especially oil will increase , due to increase worldwide
consumption, and reduction of output exporlation & production finds.
it takes several years to bring projects from drill bit to production
at this point all I can say is Please wake up america. We need an all
out effort to bring all energy projects online, oil,gas, coal, solar,
hydrogen, biofuels, etc. We need affordable secure energy for our
economy to fully recover otherwise god help us.

Dave I.

By: S. Martin

S. Martin — Thu, 08 Oct 2009 03:22:02 +0000

Alli have to say is dow 1000 here we come YES 1 not 10 thousand… when wave 3 ( in elliottwave speak ) hits it will leave you breathless, it took 300 years to get here but be over in a flash, relatively speaking, hold onto your hats it’s gonna get interesting !!!!, Simply put i agree with the bear market mentality, but like they say be careful what you wish for becuz it might come true

You asked for a correction, well … your gonna get it and then some !!!!

By: I. McIntyre

I. McIntyre — Thu, 08 Oct 2009 02:39:19 +0000

I saw the same interview by Melissa Lee and couldn’t agree more with your observations. It seems that the “Reporters” on CNBC are more intrested in making the news than reporting it.
It is further proof that you must do your own research.

By: Charles M.

Charles M. — Thu, 08 Oct 2009 02:27:31 +0000

It’s very difficult to time your trades using fundamentals. More and more lately, it seems to me that malicious forces are at work behind the scenes to manipulate the markets. Thus, I use fundamentals only as a warning. Then I wait for an actual breakout to time my trades, such as they are.

I’m not concerned if various reliable commentators have differing opinions. No one is perfect. Their opinions serve only as possibilities, at least for me.

By: Bob F.

Bob F. — Thu, 08 Oct 2009 02:22:44 +0000

I can’t believe how irresponsible the Federal Reserve and the other central banks are in keeping interest rates at such low levels. In effect they are forcing the public to enter into a very speculative class of assets, namely the stock markets. At the same time, Bernake is creating the illusion of wealth among many Americans as they see the values of their stock portfolios rising, yet the value of their currency plummets. To quote the old saying, “It’s a crazy world!” I agree that these stock markets may be approaching a dangerous inflection point. However, given the degree of manipulation by the world’s central banks who seem to have an interest in perpetuating this bubble, I do not have the courage to short this market.

By: nick m.

nick m. — Thu, 08 Oct 2009 01:37:53 +0000

Has any one done any analysis on devaluation of the dollar.

That means, the dollar will reduce in its buying capacity abroad, will pay a higher price on its purchases abroad and everything here in US is imported for daily use.

Exports may increase but that is not going to compensate for overall costing.

India Devalued in 1968 and paid a very heavy price on its economy and the result, the then FM was made a scapegoat and fired.

It brought about a general depression, imports became costlier, exports did not improve since manufacturing costs increased.
and the ultimate result was that India faced such a difficulty that it had to put Gold as security in England to feed imports and open up the country for foreign investments, get rid of all the controls on trading/business activities.

Burma demonetized its currency, replaced with new in late sixties and the result was a DOOM., complicated with the Communist/totalitarian regime which unfortunately still exists and the people are starving.
The worst tragedy took place there when thousands of people died within twenty four hours of a cyclone hit and the Govt just could not do anything.
Let currencies take their natural course. trying to manipulate does no do any good at all.

nick

By: nick m.

nick m. — Thu, 08 Oct 2009 01:13:40 +0000

People have no money, no savings, incomes have not gone up and savings have become difficult.
Equities have been wiped away all thru out the world.
Everything, including food had now become unaffordable.
Who is going to buy shares and real estate.
Only speculators and the rich ones., making it even more difficult for the poor.
The result is, creation of terrorism, robberies, thefts,so and so forth.

nick

By: M M

M M — Wed, 07 Oct 2009 23:59:11 +0000

I don’t see how gold can keep from reaching at least $5,000/Oz and silver around $200+/Oz, especially over the next three years!
1) The government continues with their printing press. The one thing Bernanke knows best. The Chinese didn’t want his chairmanship with the Fed to continue, but by golly, Obama wants more of the same nonsense. No wonder this is but one of several reasons they’ve had it!
2) Because of this printing press and other manipulations in which the gold and silver prices have been caressed by bankers with the government’s blessing (and the CFTC’s turned head didn’t help any) we can expect the pressure cooker to finally pop. The seals are straining badly now and various countries are turning up the heat.
3) Finally.. China, India, Brazil and to a lesser extent, Russia continue to improve their productivity. The USA has proven so restrictive to domestic production and friendly toward foreign industrial growth that few products remain which are value enhanced. This country CANNOT remain solely a government and services-based economy and keep any status other than third-world. Our freedoms have been going to the woodshed and down the outhouse. What else is there for Washington to take from the Sheeple? It’s getting to be very slip pickins’ if truth be known. Unemployment at under 10%? I would be willing to wager it’s around 20% or greater nationwide.

By: Bob H.

Bob H. — Wed, 07 Oct 2009 23:10:10 +0000

I agree with your comments about Melissa Lee, she should be taken out and forced to work in the back room of Taco Bell for the rest of her life.I read Peter’s book and it is great. These talking heads(Dumb asses) on cnbc don’t have a clue whats really going on in the real world. Keep up the good work.
Bob H.

By: Greg W.

Greg W. — Wed, 07 Oct 2009 22:48:37 +0000

Schiff may be right eventually but for the time being I think there is more upward movement in front of us. The sideline money still isn’t in the party but they will soon be figuring out that the shifts that are taking place really do amount to a devaluation of dollars. When that sinks in fully there will be a rush to find someplace safer than cash that is losing value big time. Hedge funds and money managers have to find a place to go with it. Bond market sucks, T-bills not very impressive,real estate not easily converted, foreign currency still risky with world markets still unstable; so I agree with a major run up in gold and commodities. Of course the easy way to see this would be to look at what China is doing with all the greenbacks it has accumulated. They are moving big on just about anything that will keep its relative value while dumping dollars to do it. Water, Oil and Gold are high priority to them and that will add a lot of upward pressure. I don’t think it is hard to imagine $2000 gold any more with some possible higher spikes caused by possible panic or flight from the dollar. It is inevetible that the relative values are going to be adjusted one way or another with the dollar losing strength in the world. That fact can’t be changed. There has to be a pay day for what has and is taking place with regard to our deficit sending. I guess I would have to say I would believe $5000 gold before I would believe it going back below $1000.

By: James M.

James M. — Wed, 07 Oct 2009 22:38:23 +0000

Excellent observations. When would you say mutual funds are heavy in cash as a percentage of total value?

By: carl h.

carl h. — Wed, 07 Oct 2009 22:09:35 +0000

It really doesn’t matter how high the market goes up, the fact is that main street is still in trouble and I’am sure wall street is not going to bail them out!!!! I have read Peter Schiff’s book crash proof and it is uncanny as to how he perdicted this crash. He also stated that the govt. would start siezing safety deposit boxes, and just last week there was a report on tv about Calf. siezing boxes and auctioning the contents claimimg the owners were unknown. He also said that gold and the stock market would be equal in price that hasn’t happen yet but it could soon.

By: Ralph P.

Ralph P. — Wed, 07 Oct 2009 21:55:40 +0000

Fundamental analysis is interesting but it has nothing to do with the stock market. The price charts tell it all and they say the U.S. stock market, Gold and Oil is going higher. All that matters is the supply and demand of stocks and commodities. Everything you talk about is the wall of worry that bull markets climb.