Wednesday, March 10, 2010

Stocks Continue to Rally despite Drop in Volatility

U.S. equity markets are trading firm overnight after yesterday’s surge to the upside. Buying pressure dried up late in the session, but no damage was done to the uptrend. Volatility
is falling which is making traders appear complacent. This could be both good and bad. On the good side, it could mean traders are gaining confidence in the recovery which will send prices higher. On
the bad side, too much complacency leaves the markets vulnerable to a bearish surprise or could trigger the start of a sizeable correction. At this time let’s just focus on the trend and determine
what it is telling us. The main trend is up in the March E-mini S&P 500. The swing chart indicates 1156.00 is the next upside target by March 12th.

June Treasury Bonds are trading lower but finding support at a 50% level at 116’04. If this area fails to hold, then look for a further correction to 115’24. A pick-up in demand for
risky assets and additional supply concerns is putting …

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G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD CHF 0.58 EUR 0.47 GBP -0.17 JPY -0.80

• UK industrial production (Jan) posted a dreadful -0.4% m/m (+0.3% expected, 0.5% prior) • Germany CPI (Feb) was revised up to 0.4% m/m, +0.6% y/y (0.2/0.3 expected) • UK Prime Minister Gordon Brown says currency imbalances holding back global growth. • German Economy Minister reported to have said European Monetary Fund should only be for Eurozone states. • Swiss officials decline to comment…

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G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD CHF -0.07 EUR -0.12 GBP -0.35 JPY -0.39

• Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence printed at 0.2% vs. -2.6% exp • Australia Jan owner-occupied housing finance -7.9% m/m vs.-2.0% exp investment finance +0.9% • In Australia RBA AsstGov Lowe sounded very optimistic stating that growth was at or above average for the next couple of yrs, while labor market are strong and inflation consistent with medium-term target, challenge to expand supply…

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